Russia’s War on Ukraine: The Carrot and Stick Approach

The latest violence in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has brought a new level of brutality to the region. President Putin claims that Kyiv has “opened Pandora’s box” with strikes across Russia, an assertion intended to justify further escalation. In response, President Zelensky has vowed to respond to Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians, underscoring the cycle of violence that has defined this conflict.

The attack on a shopping center in Kryvyi Rih, which killed at least 16 people and wounded over 130, including more than 20 children, is a stark example of Russia’s willingness to target civilian infrastructure. A second drone struck the center half an hour after the first, targeting emergency services, suggesting a deliberate attempt to maximize harm.

The international community has condemned these attacks as “terror by design,” a characterization that accurately reflects Russia’s actions. By targeting civilian infrastructure, Russia aims to break the will of the Ukrainian people. The EU has responded with its most far-reaching sanctions listings since the start of the war, a move recognizing the need for economic pressure to curb Moscow’s aggression.

Ukraine’s response has been equally telling. Rather than simply retaliating with military force, Kyiv has targeted key Russian infrastructure, such as the Novokuybyshevsk refinery in Russia’s Samara Oblast. This calculated move illustrates Ukraine’s increasing reliance on asymmetric warfare tactics, which have proven effective in disrupting Russia’s supply chains and eroding its economic leverage.

The UK-Ukraine drone partnership is a significant development in this strategy. Britain provides engineering expertise, industrial capacity, certification, capital, and access to international markets, recognizing the value of Ukraine’s unique battlefield-tested designs and operational knowledge. This collaboration marks a growing recognition within Western nations that supporting Ukraine is essential in containing Russian aggression.

The war in Ukraine has become a proxy conflict for great power rivalries. Russia seeks to assert its dominance over Eastern Europe while the West aims to contain Moscow’s expansionist ambitions. As this cycle of violence continues, it is crucial that the international community recognizes the strategic importance of supporting Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself against Russian aggression.

The recent arrest of Volodymyr Zhuravlev, one of the main suspects in the 2022 Nord Stream explosions, raises questions about the involvement of Ukrainian operatives in high-stakes operations beyond the battlefield. While some may view this development as a distraction from the conflict at hand, it underscores the complexities and nuances of modern warfare.

As the war rages on, Ukraine will require sustained support from its international partners to withstand Russia’s relentless pressure. The EU’s latest sanctions packages are a step in the right direction, but more must be done to address the root causes of this conflict. By understanding and addressing the underlying drivers of Russian aggression – including its desire to dominate Eastern Europe and maintain its influence over global energy markets – we can work towards a more stable and secure future for Ukraine and the wider region.

The international community must continue to hold Moscow accountable for its aggression, while supporting Ukraine in its efforts to defend itself against this relentless onslaught. Russia’s war on Ukraine will only end when it realizes that its actions have consequences beyond its own borders.