Can Chelsea Go from 10th to Title Again?

The Premier League has undergone significant changes since Leicester City’s unexpected title win in 2015-16, when a team that finished 14 points behind the champions went on to lift the trophy just a year later. Chelsea are hoping to repeat this feat after finishing 10th last season under interim manager Guus Hiddink’s successor, Liam Rosenior. With new manager Xabi Alonso at the helm and no European football commitments, can the Blues defy the odds once more?

Chelsea’s current situation bears striking similarities to their past mid-table finishes. In both 2015-16 and last season, they scored just one more goal than they conceded, with a similar goal difference to what they achieved under Antonio Conte when he led them to the title in 2016-17. However, this time around, Chelsea have a new manager who has already proven his tactical acumen at Bayer Leverkusen.

Alonso’s transformation of Leverkusen is an intriguing case study for Chelsea fans. After taking over with the club in the relegation zone, he led them to a remarkable turnaround, culminating in their first-ever Bundesliga title without losing a single game in 2023-24. This achievement highlights Alonso’s ability to adapt and improve his team, demonstrating that even the most unlikely candidates can achieve greatness.

While Chelsea would need to significantly improve from last season’s performance to win the title, they have shown signs of being better than their lowly finish suggests. According to underlying expected goal numbers, they were the fourth-most dominant team in the Premier League (excluding penalties). The issue lay not with their attacking prowess but rather their inability to convert chances into goals.

Chelsea’s struggles in front of goal, particularly in March and April under Liam Rosenior, were a key factor in their poor finish. However, it is unlikely they will suffer from such a sudden slump again this season, given the change in manager and the absence of European football commitments. This could prove to be a blessing in disguise for Chelsea, as nine of the ‘Big Six’ teams that have had no European football have gone on to improve their Premier League finish.

Liverpool’s near-miss in 2013-14 serves as a cautionary tale for Chelsea, who would need to take advantage of the reduced pressure and improved fixture list. With Arsenal likely to mount a stronger title defence, Chelsea will need to be at their best to challenge for the top spot. However, with Alonso’s tactical nous and the team’s underlying performance, it is not impossible that they could repeat the feat.

The question remains: can Chelsea overcome their past shortcomings and achieve greatness once more? History suggests it is a tall order, but with a new manager and no European football commitments, they have a unique opportunity to write their own success story. Only time will tell if Alonso can repeat his miracle at Leverkusen or if the Blues will fall short of expectations once again.

As Chelsea look to make a statement in the Premier League this season, fans will be watching with bated breath to see if they can overcome their past failures and achieve greatness once more. With a new manager, improved team performance, and no European football commitments, it is an intriguing time for the Blues. Will history repeat itself, or will Chelsea find themselves on the outside looking in?