Carmakers May Keep Pushing EVs Even if the Combustion Phase-Out Slows
A UBS analyst tells Autocar that carmakers are unlikely to change course on electric cars even if the UK or EU loosens emissions rules for combustion engines.
According to Autocar, Patrick Hummel, an automotive analyst at the investment bank UBS, has argued that car manufacturers would keep their electric plans largely intact even if the UK or the EU weakened emissions legislation to give combustion-engined cars a longer exit route.
Hummel reportedly said that makers would be unlikely to alter their launch plans in any meaningful way. He went further, suggesting that the industry should instead speed up the rollout of a full range of electric models.
Autocar frames the view as resting on consumer demand rather than on government policy. In the outlet's account, manufacturers now appear to be committed to electric vehicles for market reasons, which would hold even if the rules around them changed.
The comments come at a time when environmental groups have pressed governments to hold firm on the 2035 timetable for phasing out sales of new combustion-engined cars. Autocar notes that a statement of this kind from a major bank points to a different possibility: that the market itself may be moving ahead of the regulations.
The coverage does not spell out specific models, product schedules or policy proposals, so the scenario it describes remains hypothetical.
Background
The current debate traces back to a series of rules that set dates for ending sales of new petrol and diesel cars. In the European Union, a CO2 standard for new cars has pushed manufacturers toward zero-emission vehicles, with 2035 widely cited as the year that effectively closes the door on new combustion-only models. The United Kingdom has run its own zero-emission vehicle mandate, which requires a rising share of new car sales to be electric each year, while allowing hybrids to continue for a period after pure combustion sales end.
Those rules were designed to give automakers a long runway. Companies typically plan new platforms and factories several years ahead, and these plans are costly to reshape. Once a company commits to a battery-electric architecture, it often builds a family of vehicles around it, so changes to the schedule can have ripple effects across product, supply chains and dealer networks.
Over the same period, the market has been shaped by other forces. Battery costs, charging access, vehicle prices and buyer confidence all influence how quickly electric cars sell. Many carmakers have also kept combustion engines in their line-ups for longer than their early plans suggested, particularly in markets where demand for larger vehicles remains strong.
Because of that history, the question of whether regulation or customer demand is doing the heavier lifting has become central. Policy can set the outer limit, but companies make decisions based on what they expect buyers to purchase and what their investors will accept.
Why it matters
If an analyst is right that carmakers would not meaningfully change course, the stakes shift. Political pressure to delay the 2035 deadline could carry less practical weight than it appears, because manufacturers may already be committed to electric production for reasons of cost, competition and profitability. That would reduce the practical benefit of any rollback for drivers who had hoped to keep buying combustion cars for longer.
The point also matters for consumers. Buyers who prefer petrol or diesel vehicles might find fewer choices in future showrooms, even if the rules allow them to continue. Conversely, a faster move toward electric models could bring more affordable options sooner, provided prices, charging and battery supply keep pace.
For the broader industry, the argument highlights a tension. Automakers often lobby for flexibility, yet the same firms have invested heavily in electrification. Their public positions and their product plans do not always point in the same direction, and analysts' comments can clarify which signal investors and policymakers should trust.
Finally, the debate touches on the credibility of climate policy. If regulation is seen as simply following a market shift already under way, governments may face a different set of arguments about whether to tighten, hold or relax their targets.
What to watch
The first thing to track is whether any government formally proposes to extend the combustion phase-out. Any such change would need to be examined closely for its details, including what counts as an allowed vehicle and how long any extension would run.
Next, watch carmakers' own product announcements. Launch schedules, model cancellations and investment decisions in battery and vehicle plants will show whether industry behavior matches the analyst's view.
Demand data will also matter. Sales trends for electric and combustion vehicles over the coming months will indicate whether buyers are moving at the pace that manufacturers appear to expect.
Finally, keep an eye on the reaction from environmental groups and industry bodies, which will shape how the political debate develops.
Viewpoints
Commentary from our columns: three angles on this story.
The Accountant price, value and running costs
Strip away the politics and the question becomes simple arithmetic. A car is a long-term purchase, and what matters to most buyers is the total cost over the years they own it: the purchase price, fuel or electricity, servicing, insurance and resale value. If an analyst believes the market is already tilting toward electric, that tells us where the money is heading. Manufacturers do not build product lines for regulatory fashion; they build them where they expect to sell cars at a profit. A looser rule might keep an old engine on the price list for a few extra years, but it does not change the economics of a dealership that is trying to sell the vehicles people want to buy. The useful test for any reader is not what the law permits, but what the monthly figures look like on a real budget. Electric cars carry higher upfront prices in many segments, yet lower running costs can narrow the gap over time. Those are the numbers worth checking before deciding anything, whatever the rulebook says.
The Skeptic open questions and weak points
It is worth being careful with a confident prediction from one analyst. The claim that makers would change "nothing" is striking, but the reporting leaves plenty unanswered. Would the same logic apply to every maker, including those with large combustion businesses and different customer bases? Would it hold in every market, or mainly in the places where electric sales are already strong? Demand is an important driver, yet demand can shift quickly when fuel prices move, when subsidies end or when charging proves inconvenient. There is also a gap between what companies say in public and what they quietly do, particularly when they face lobbying pressure. None of this means the prediction is wrong. It means the prediction should be tested against product launches, investment announcements and sales data over time. A forecast from a bank is a view, not a guarantee, and readers should hold it to that standard while the evidence develops.
The Commuter the everyday buyer's view
For most people, the question is not what a carmaker plans in a boardroom. It is whether the next car they buy will fit their life. If you drive to work, pick up children and run errands in the same week, you care about reliability, a charging option at home or nearby, and whether a car can handle a long trip without drama. If the industry is moving toward electric models anyway, that could mean more choice on the lot in a few years, which is good news for people who want one. It could also mean fewer options for those who are not ready to switch. Commuters are often caught between headlines and their own budgets. The sensible approach is to stop waiting for the rules to settle and to ask practical questions now: how far do I drive each day, can I charge where I park, and how long do I plan to keep the car? Those answers will matter more than any forecast.